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Kissinger is wrong about China |
2005-07-25 15:52:05 |
Li Thian-hok
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ip: 220.X.X.X |
Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger opined in the Washington Post ("China: Containment Won't Work," June 13, 2005) that China's rise will be peaceful and inevitable, and Cold War era containment policy will be ineffective To preserve world peace, the US must accommodate the "reordering of the international system" caused by the rise of China. In his long essay Mr. Kissinger made a number of incorrect or loose statements.
His assertion that seven US presidents "have recognized China's claim that Taiwan is part of China" is simply wrong. Ever since the 1972 Shanghai Communique our position has consistently been that "the United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China." Acknowledgment means taking notice while recognition signifies acceptance. In diplomatic parlance the two words have distinctly different meanings. The choice of the word "acknowledges" was deliberate. This intent was affirmed on July 14, 1982, when President Reagan gave his six assurances to Taiwan. The most important assurance was that "the United States would not formally recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan," and that policy has never been changed.
The linchpin of US policy towards Taiwan is the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) which purports to preserve and enhance the human rights of the 23 million Taiwanese. TRA provides the legal framework for the sale of defensive arms to Taiwan and US help in defending Taiwan's security against Chinese use of force. The legal foundation of TRA will collapse should the US one day elect to recognize the Chinese claim that Taiwan is part of China.
Mr. Kissinger also asserted: "the Chinese state in its present dimensions has existed substantially for 2,000 years." This is a misleading statement. Today China controls both Xinjiang and Tibet. Over the past two millennia, however, the Xinjiang region was ruled by other empires except for some 125 years under the Han and Tang dynasties of China. The Qing empire did not control Xinjiang until 1758. As for Tibet the Qing dynasty replaced Mongol rule in 1720, and claimed nominal suzerainty thereafter. The fact is China's territory has expanded or shrunk according to its strength. When its military was strong, China invariably followed an expansionist policy, as in the early period of the Qing dynasty.
Mr. Kissinger believes that Sino-American relations have improved partly due to "restraint by all parties in not exacerbating tensions in the Taiwan Strait." "All parties" would include China. Yet China has shown little "restraint." China has repeatedly threatened to invade Taiwan unless the island nation capitulates soon. The Anti-Secession Law passed by the National People's Congress on March 14 pre-authorized the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to take non-peaceful means against Taiwan. This was in essence a declaration of war against democratic values and against America's role as the guarantor of peace in East Asia.
The PLA is actively developing the capacity to overwhelm Taiwan with a blitzkrieg before the US can react. The PLA has over 600 missiles targeted on Taiwan and US forces deployed in East Asia. China is rapidly expanding its nuclear-tipped ICBM arsenal capable of hitting the US homeland. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld expressed concern on June 4 that China's military buildup appeared to go beyond the requirements of a Taiwan contingency. The PLA is building nuclear-powered submarines ¡V a clear signal that China plans to expand its naval power and influence far into the Pacific and beyond. Later this year the Chinese will conduct an unprecedented massive joint air and naval exercises with the Russians, on Chinese territory.
Mr. Kissinger says "preemption is not a feasible policy toward a country of China's magnitude." Actually no responsible policymaker or scholar has suggested preemption against China. This does not mean, however, that the US should keep trading with and investing in China and help build up its economic wealth and military power without paying heed to the consequences of China's rise on America's political, economic and security interests in Asia as well as the rest of the globe.
The test of whether China could evolve into a peaceful and civilized member of the global community would be the way China tries to resolve its dispute with peaceful Taiwan, where a great majority of the people reject Chinese Communist rule and prefer to keep their freedom. Former Secretary of State Colin Powell has once said how China treats Taiwan will indicate how China will deal with the US in the future. It will be morally untenable for America to acquiesce in China's military invasion of democratic Taiwan and tactically unwise to countenance Beijing's aggressive united front intervention in Taiwan's domestic politics.
Once Taiwan falls under Chinese control, through open war or covert internal subversion, the credibility of the US-Japan alliance will be damaged beyond repair. The peace and stability of East Asia will unravel, with harmful consequences ultimately to America's homeland security.
China is not just interested in peace and progress. All Chinese are indoctrinated from childhood to believe in two ideas. First, China is the Middle Kingdom, the center of the earth surrounded by barbarians on all sides. The Chinese civilization is superior to all others and the Chinese race is destined to rule the world. Second, China has been humiliated by the Western powers for over a century since the Opium War. China must build national wealth and military power so it can exact retribution and restore the glory of the Chinese Empire. These notions of aggrieved nationalism are so deeply ingrained that no government official or PLA officer can disagree with China's policy of military aggrandizement and territorial expansionism without jeopardizing his career.
Under the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) China is like a runaway train without a brake. The Party is obsessed with defending its monopoly of power against widespread and increasingly violent protests by millions of dispossessed farmers and unemployed workers. Externally the CCP has little choice but to pursue its chauvinistic policy of undermining US dominance while pretending to be a responsible player in world affairs.
The US needs a proactive policy of encouraging China's political liberalization and dissuading China from the destructive path of unrestrained nationalism. The US needs diligence, foresight and the resolve to defend and expand freedom. The US must guard against inattention, complacency and preoccupation with short-term commercial gain. Whatever the future holds, managing China's rise may well be America's greatest challenge in the 21st century.
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