Some pundits have claimed of late that the "Taiwan is part of China" fiction under the one China formula is the foundation of peace between Taiwan and China during the past quarter century. This view is flawed. Three factors have in fact prevented China's military adventures against Taiwan. First, the U.S. has insisted on peaceful resolution of the China-Taiwan dispute and has promised to aid Taiwan should China resort to force. The U.S. has sold defensive weapons to Taiwan, such as the 150 F-16 fighters. These policies are based on the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), a U.S. domestic law which took effect in 1979. Second, the democratization of Taiwan in the past decade removed the possibility of an authoritarian Taiwan government negotiating terms of surrender with China against the wishes of the Taiwanese people. Finally, China lacked the military capability to invade or to effectively intimidate Taiwan into submission.

　　The military balance in the Taiwan Strait, however, has been shifting steadily in China's favor. With its successful economic reform, China has been modernizing its armed forces and building the military means to subdue Taiwan, including the purchase of advanced SU-27 and SU-30 fighter aircraft and modern submarines from Russia, deployment of over 100 mid-range missiles in Fukien province across from Taiwan and infiltration of Taiwan by thousands of special forces soldiers. The February Pentagon report to the U.S. Congress regarding Taiwan's security concludes that by 2005 China will be able to launch a multi-pronged invasion of Taiwan and take the island, barring third-party intervention. How has Taiwan's security deteriorated to this extent? Part of the reason is the refusal of successive U.S. governments to honor the TRA commitment to sell Taiwan sufficient weapons for its defense. China has 66 submarines, Taiwan has only 4, two of which are good only for training. Yet the U.S. has refused to sell submarines to Taiwan despite urgent requests, for fear of offending China.

　　The one China policy essentially is U.S. acknowledgment (not recognition) that the Chinese on both sides agree that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China. Although the U.S. has been careful in not formally recognizing China's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan, the distinction between acknowledgment and recognition has been blurred by President Clinton's verbal statement in Shanghai in June 1998 that the U.S. will not support Taiwan independence or one China-one Taiwan, or two Chinas. Many in the U.S. media as well as foreign governments have interpreted the Clinton three no's statement as acceptance of China's sovereignty claim on Taiwan, even though in July of 1998 the U.S. Congress repudiated the three no's policy and reaffirmed U.S. commitment to the TRA with near unanimous majorities. The one China policy has been outdated by Taiwan's democratization and China's military modernization. Clinging to it may well destroy Taiwan's chance of keeping its free-market democracy away from China's grasp.

　　When Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui says Taiwan is a state, he is not merely confirming a reality, he is also reflecting the will of 22 million Taiwanese, who feel insecure under the international isolation imposed by the one China fictions. The assertion that Taiwan is not part of China may be essential to Taiwan's survival as a democratic nation. Even though the Kuomintang government purports a long term goal of unification with China, the Taiwanese people and the international community tend to ignore the pre-condition that China must first become a pluralistic democracy. Taiwan finds it increasingly difficult to maintain the necessary morale both in the armed forces and the civilian population to resist Chinese psychological intimidation and military threats. The Taiwanese urgently need to have hope for their future, based on pride in their political and economic achievements and built upon a sense of national identification with Taiwan.

　　China will attack Taiwan when its military preparation is completed and when it is convinced the U.S. will acquiesce in its use of force. China can always find a casus belli. Whether Taiwan sticks to the one China fiction isn't really relevant. Chinese military conquest of Taiwan will no doubt harm U.S. economic, strategic and security interests in a peaceful and stable East Asia. To deter military conflicts in the Taiwan strait, the U.S. must avoid the appearance of siding with China. The U.S. needs to go back to the basic principles of the TRA -- peaceful settlement and the preservation of the human rights of the Taiwanese, including their right to freely determine their own future. Taiwan's security, after all, is ultimately also America's security.

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