President Bush’s Blunder
--If not immediately corrected, Taiwan will be in grave peril--

Feb. 04, 2004

by Takayuki Munakata
Secretary General of the Asian Security Forum
Translated from Japanese

An all important presidential election, which will no doubt determine the fate of Taiwan, will be held on March 20. The last election four years ago was a three-way contest which saw Chen Shui-bian, the Democratic Progressive Party candidate, win with 39.3 % of the votes, James Soong, the People First Party president, second with 36.84%, and Lien Chan, the Nationalist Party president, third with 23.1%. The coming election will be a two-way contest, pitting President Chen Shui-bian against the Lien-Soong combined ticket, formed by Soong’s machination, installing Lien Chan as the presidential candidate and Soong as the vice-presidential candidate. Because in the last election Lien and Soong captured a combined total of about 60% of the votes cast, the general consensus until last summer was that the Lien-Soong camp enjoyed an overwhelming advantage. President Chen Shui-bian’s public standing, however, saw a rapid rise last September after he initiated a series of positive policies, such as enacting a new Taiwan constitution in 2006, determining critical issues through referenda, a form of direct democracy, and other steps. It was felt that Chen’s standing would soon surpass that of Lien and Soong. But at this juncture, an unexpected savior appeared for the Lien-Soong camp. It was President Bush.

Last December 9, at a meeting with Prime Minister Wen Jiabao of China, President Bush said that the U.S. would observe “the one China” policy, and that “the comments and actions made by leader of Taiwan indicate that he may be willing to make decisions unilaterally to change the status quo, which we oppose.” In view of the U.S. need to have China’s cooperation in the war against terrorism and in solving the North Korean issue, President Bush must have made the statement as a lip service. His statement, however, has been a big boon to the Lien-Soong camp, energizing it to state, “Chen Shui-bian’s independence line, pushing the enactment of a Taiwan constitution and referendum, is a dangerous policy that will invite China’s military attack. The U.S., opposed to Chen’s independence line, would not assist Taiwan if attacked by China.” The Lien-Soong camp has since been inciting fears among the people of Taiwan.

On December 29, 2003 the Japanese Foreign Ministry, after professing that the U.S. government also made its anxiety known, made a very unusual presentation to President Chen Shui-bian, opposing the enactment of a new Taiwan constitution and sponsoring a referendum. The Japanese Foreign Ministry’s “China school” officials, who have blindly followed Chinese policy, have taken advantage of Bush’s statement of December 9. As a result, the Taiwanese advocates of unification with China are running a propaganda campaign, saying “the U.S. and Japan are all opposing Chen Shui-bian.” In addition, on January 27, 2004 French President Chirac expressed to Chinese President Hu Jintao his opposition to Taiwan’s referendum, criticizing Taiwan as “provocative.” One cannot help gaining the impression that the democratic countries are lining up opposing President Chen.

Having achieved a number of foreign policy successes, China is thus menacing the people of Taiwan by conducting military exercises in the South China seas, aimed at the blockade of Taiwan, and by conducting missiles test-firing exercises in southern China opposite of Taiwan. In 1996, when Taiwan conducted its first direct election, China lobbed missiles into the seas near Taiwan in an attempt to cut President Lee Teng-hui’s popularity. The attempt backfired, resulting in Lee’s overwhelming victory. Shortly before the 2000 presidential election, Prime Minister Zhu Rongji threatened the people of Taiwan, declaring that “the election of the independence candidate would mean war,” but failed to prevent Chen Shui-bian’s victory. This time around, having recognized that military threats alone are not sufficient, China is, therefore, trying to raise the military threat impact by mobilizing the U.S. and other countries to oppose President Chen’s policy.

President Bush has completely fallen into China’s trap. That Bush was totally unaware of China’s stratagem was apparent from his conviction that his statement to Prime Minister Wen Jiabao (“the use of force against Taiwan would absolutely not be tolerated”) would preserve the balance between Taiwan and China. China is most aware that it lacks the military capabilities to attack Taiwan. Military threats are only the means for achieving “the peaceful” unification of Taiwan.

Once President Chen is reelected and a new Taiwan constitution is enacted, it will become apparent that Taiwan is a state which is legally and totally different from China. China will lose all opportunities of unifying Taiwan. On the other hand, the establishment of the Lien-Soong government, the camp advocating unification with China, will mean the rapid transformation of Taiwan into China. The unification camp recognizes China’s “one China” principle, claiming “Taiwan is part of China.” Its China policy is thus one which completely tows the Chinese line. The unification advocates have proclaimed their intention of opening up the sea and air routes between Taiwan and China as domestic transportation lines within two years after assuming power. Once open as domestic transportation lines, the Chinese will be free to come to Taiwan and Chinese military aircraft and warships, too, will be free to enter and leave Taiwan. If the people of Taiwan put up any resistance, the unification government would, as a domestic security measure, borrow and deploy the power of the Chinese government to suppress the opposition. In that eventuality, what can the U.S. do? Even in South Korea and the Philippines, where the U.S. had stationed its armed forces, the U.S. could only watch from the sideline the rise of dictatorial governments and their infringements on freedom and democracy.

If Taiwan falls into Chinese control, not only the Taiwan Strait, but the South China seas will become the inland seas of China, leading to China’s complete domination of Japan’s life line, namely, the sea lane to the Middle East. If the U.S. leader’s blunder results in the loss of Taiwan’s freedom and democracy, the U.S. will lose its credibility. The coming presidential election of Taiwan will determine not only the destiny of Taiwan, but the future of the United States and Japan.

It is not too late. The U.S. should change its Taiwan policy. So that Taiwan’s electorates could understand it clearly, President Bush himself should state his intention of “supporting the Chen Shui-bian government and cooperating in the defense of Taiwan’s freedom and democracy.”