Purpose and summary

This is the second of a series of White Papers, issued by the overseas Taiwanese community in Canada, Europe and the United States — as represented by the organizations mentioned at the end of this Paper. Through these White Papers, we wish to promote a better understanding in North America and Europe of our homeland Taiwan, and to gain support for acceptance of Taiwan as a full and equal member in the international community.

In this paper, we deal with the important issue of safety and security of Taiwan, and discuss how it affects peace and stability in all of East Asia. On the following pages we first give a brief historical background. Then we present an overview of the Chinese military threat and Taiwan's defensive capabilities. We conclude with a number of policy recommendations, both for Taiwan itself, as well as for the United States and other democratic nations, which are concerned about peace and stability in East Asia.

Introduction

In 1995-1996, in the run-up to the first direct presidential election in Taiwan, the People's Republic of China staged threatening military exercises opposite Taiwan and launched missiles at the island, which finally prompted the Clinton administration — after a considerable delay — to take action and send two aircraft carriers battle groups to the area.

Since then, there has been an increasing number of reports of a significant Chinese military buildup, both of conventional forces as well as missiles, which seem specifically designed to threaten and intimidate Taiwan. In the following sections, we present an overview of these developments, based on published records and on references listed at the end of this Paper.

In spite of repeated urging by the United States and other Western nations, China has consistently refused to renounce the use of force against Taiwan. During his visit to Washington in April 1999, Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji even pointedly reiterated that China would never renounce the use of force, in spite of the fact that Taiwan does not constitute a threat to China's security in any way.

Before going into the military aspects, it is necessary to briefly summarize some historical issues and relevant aspects of Taiwan's international status. These are treated in more detail in the earlier paper, titled White Paper regarding Taiwan and its Future.

Historical background

After World War II, the island of Taiwan _ which had been under Japanese rule since 1895 — was occupied by the losing side of the Chinese Civil War "on behalf of the Allied Forces". The Chinese mainlanders who came over with Chiang Kai-shek in 1949 constituted only 15 percent of the population of the island, but were able to maintain themselves in a position of power over the 85 percent native Taiwanese through tight control of the political system, police, military, educational system and media.

During the following four decades, the Kuomintang established a harsh regime, in which the native Taiwanese had little political representation. In the meantime, the Kuomintang authorities attempted to maintain the fiction that they ruled all of China, and would some day "recover" the mainland.

In the 1970s, the picture changed dramatically: in 1971, the UN accepted the Beijing regime as the representative of China. In 1972 President Nixon visited China, and on 1 January 1979, the United States switched recognition from the Kuomintang regime to the Beijing regime. These changes also gave impetus to the growth and evolution of Taiwan's democratic opposition movement in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

Martial Law was finally lifted in 1987, and the democratic opposition movement evolved into a full-fledged opposition party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). However, it wasn't until 1991 that the KMT dropped the claim to rule all of China, and that aging Nationalist Chinese legislators — elected on the mainland in 1947 — were sent into retirement.

Since then, the island has undergone a major political transformation in the direction of a fully multi-party democratic political system. To this day, however, the KMT authorities continue to cling to their outdated claim that "Taiwan is part of China." In doing so, they are perpetuating Taiwan's international isolation and its lack of diplomatic recognition.

Taiwan's status

In international law, the 1933 Montevideo Convention on Rights and Duties of States defines the qualifications for recognition as a nation-state: a defined territory, a permanent population, and a government capable of entering into relations with other states. Taiwan fulfills all these requirements. Indeed, it has a population greater than that of 3/4 of the members of the UN. It is a de facto independent nation, and should be recognized as such.

The question, of course, is under what name it is to be recognized. The Kuomintang authorities at present still cling to the "Republic of China" designation, and maintain diplomatic ties with some 30 nations under this title, most of which are small nations in Central America, the Caribbean and Africa.

The democratic opposition movement in Taiwan and the overseas Taiwanese community as represented by the undersigned organizations insist on the principle that Taiwan has a right to international recognition as a full and equal member of the international community under the name "Taiwan."

China refuses to accept Taiwan as a friendly neighbor, it blocks its international recognition, and continues to lay claim to the island on the basis of the Chinese Civil War. This war ended five decades ago with the establishment of the People's Republic of China, and the expulsion of the Kuomintang authorities from Chinese soil to Taiwan.

China's position — that Taiwan is a "province" of China, and that the matter between Taiwan and China is an "internal" Chinese issue — has no historical or international legal basis. It runs counter to the basic principles of human rights, democracy, and self-determination, as enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations. A further explanation can be found in the earlier White Paper on Taiwan and its Future.

China's military threat

At the end of February 1999, the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) issued a report to Congress, titled "The Security Situation in the Taiwan Strait." One of the conclusions of the report is that China is changing its force planning, strategy and military doctrine. It is shifting away from the concept of fighting a large-scale "total war", all-out invasion, or blockade, and is moving towards preparing to fight and win "local wars under high-technology conditions."

In this context, Beijing is developing asymmetric abilities in certain niches, such as advanced cruise missiles and conventional short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs). According to the report, Beijing is attempting to develop these asymmetric engagement capabilities in an effort to outwit and defeat a stronger foe, using unexpected or innovative means, while avoiding the adversary's strengths.

Translated to the stand-off in the Taiwan Strait, this means that China intends to use weapon systems such as SRBMs and cruise missiles in large numbers, in an attempt to subject Taiwan to "credible intimidation" needed to accomplish political and military goals without having to rely on overwhelming force-on-force superiority.

The U.S. Department of Defense Report states that "…China views its growing conventionally armed ballistic missiles as a potent military and political weapon to influence Taiwan's populace and their leaders" (emphasis added).

At the same time, China is involved in the acquisition, primarily from Russia, of weapon systems it views as necessary to deter the United States from becoming involved militarily. These include Sukhoi Su-27 supersonic fighters and Sovremenny-class destroyers, outfitted with supersonic SS-N-22 Sunburn missiles.

A detailed analysis of China's military buildup goes beyond the scope of this paper. For that, we refer to the DOD report mentioned above, and to the various references listed at the end of this paper. Below, we highlight some of the major areas of concern.

Ballistic missiles and cruise missiles